When Gold Speaks Louder than Inflation: Evidence from PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk 2010-2024
Published:
2026-09-12Downloads
Abstract
This study examines the effect of inflation, gold futures prices, and the US dollar exchange rate (USD/IDR) on the working capital ratio of a Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) company, using PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk as the object of analysis. Most previous studies place working capital as a determinant of profitability or firm performance; this study reverses that position by treating the working capital ratio as the dependent variable explained by domestic price pressure, global market dynamics, and currency movements. The research applies a quantitative approach using secondary data from the company financial reports, Bank Indonesia, and international gold futures market data, comprising fifteen annual observations covering 2010-2024 (N = 15). All variables are transformed into natural logarithms and analysed through multiple linear regression in SPSS, preceded by classical assumption testing. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (Sig. = 0.200), the Glejser test (all Sig. > 0.05), and the runs test (Asymp. Sig. = 1.000) confirm that the residuals are normally distributed, homoscedastic, and free from autocorrelation. The model yields an R-Square of 0.544 and an Adjusted R-Square of 0.420, indicating that the three macroeconomic variables jointly account for a substantial share of the variation in the working capital ratio. Partially, the gold price is the only variable with a significant positive effect on the working capital ratio (B = 0.396; Sig. = 0.009), while the exchange rate (B = -0.504; Sig. = 0.085) and inflation (B = -0.052; Sig. = 0.584), both negative in direction, are not significant at the five per cent level. The results suggest that global risk sentiment, proxied by gold futures prices, is more closely associated with the liquidity position of an Indonesian FMCG company than domestic inflation itself. The findings show that liquidity policy in consumer goods firms is embedded in a wider macroeconomic environment.
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